Rick Boucher, Bill Carrico, and William Wampler
September 25, 2006I’ve had discussions with learned Republicans in this area about the Boucher v. Carrico race. Just about every Republican I’ve talekd to has already conceded this race. There’s no way–no way–that Bill Carrico can beat Rick Boucher.
The general consensus is that the GOP will either have to wait until Boucher retires (which is probably a very long way off), or until State Senator William Wampler decided to run against him.
You may know that Senator Wampler’s father, Bill Wampler, was the 9th district’s Congressman from 1952-1954 and from 1966-1982, when he was defeated by Boucher. GOPers think that Wampler may want to “vindicate” his father for the loss. Others think that simply based on his last name, he could beat Boucher.
I say no way.
First, we’re not even sure if Wampler would want to run for Congress. I’ve heard from a Republican friend of mine (who ran for Lt. Governor in 2001, if that tells you who it is) that says Wampler won’t run for any higher office until his children are older, and even then, he would probably like to run for a statewide office (Lt. Governor is the most likely choice, apparently). That’s a way to kill three birds with one stone, right there. Not only would Wampler’s Senate seat come open (a possible Democrat pickup–Boucher held it before he did), but a losing race would probably eliminate Wampler from running against Boucher, and, since Wampler isn’t exactly what I would call chairismatic, he would probably lose the LG race (maybe even in the primary if it’s 2009).
So, I’m here to say to the Republicans, Bill Carrico is not going to be our congressman. William Wampler is not going to be our congressman. Running against Rick Boucher is a lost cause, folks.
-Neal
So… I’ve been giving some thought to something. If 9th CD voters are so demoralized by Bill Carrico’s pathetic changes, is there a chance we could experience depressed GOP turnout in the 9th? That might be enough to swing the election in favor of Jim Webb, no?
That could very well be a possibility, but it might be offset by the marriage amendment.
However, I heard somewhere that the anti-marriage amendment folks have raised 5 times as much as the pro-amendment folks, and we know they’re doing way more advertising, so that might not be an issue either.
But yes, if we can energize our base here to get out and vote for Rick Boucher, with GOPers down and out about Bill Carrico, all we have to do is convince our folks to vote a straight party line.
That shouldn’t be too hard given Jim’s roots in SWVA…
Neal,
You may not remember me, but this is Charlie from Good Sense. It’s good to finally find your new blog. At any rate, I would disagree with you on only one point. Bill Wampler, Jr. is the only politician currently holding office that would remotely have a chance against Congressman Boucher. In fact, I’ve said that for the past 12 years.
Congressman Boucher has had the luxury of not having been challenged by someone with a record of public service. I’ve supported my Republican candidates, but
as much as I like and respect Bill Carrico and Mike Osbourne and Mr. Triplett, a serious Republican challenger needs to have a record to run on.
At any rate, it’s good to see that you’re still blogging…
Cheers